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The world’s economy is going into a full-blown economic collapse. There’s nothing new here. We all know things are going bad and all economics, political and social models are changing quicker than we thought. This health crisis we’re facing is a historical moment, and we have to keep up with it. So, why is this the worst economic collapse that most people alive ever faced?
Jim Rickards warned and showed us that the academic approach does not deliver what the recent scenario needs. Most economic theories surround a society that no longer exists, so none of the solutions that the academy provides are helpful. Of course, not all thesis. Kenneth Rogoff shows in his work that the debt-to-GDP ratio- which means the ability countries have to pay back they’re debts- higher than 90% deny the Keynesian multiplier (an economic theory that shows any government spent generate cycles that increase employment and prosperity, regardless from of spending), which implies that a dollar borrowed and or spent will produce only $0.90 of GPD in these proportion. The perfect case of “You can’t borrow your way out of a debt crisis”.
In reality, before the health crisis, the U.S debt-to-GPD ratio was already 105%, and it’s only getting worse. Rogoff’s prediction for the outbreak recovery is terrifying. He defines it as the New Depression, being worst than the Great Depression (1920′) and the 2008 collapse.
Looking at the grand scenario, we have to understand what this emergency moment does to our politics and society. Three complex systems that affect one another (health crisis – economic collapse – political crisis). Analyzing one of these systems is already difficult, a bit more challenging when all three interact simultaneously. The situation produces a feedback circuit, a “Black Swan” (a metaphor that describes a surprising, unexpected event, based on an ancient proverb that presumes black swans didn’t exist). Probably the blackest swan ever seen by people alive.
Rickards says that this situation is as contagious for humankind just as much to the financial market. In public health matters, it means a disease transmissible human to human through body fluids, shared needles, shared and or infected food/ utensils, and many other ways. In financial matters, it can be a bank that did business with a failed entity, then to stockholders, and other banks, creating a financial distress and worldwide panic, such as the 2008 crisis. In both situations, we have the “patient zero”. In public health, because of the latency, some illness has, the first person who caries it can infect hundreds of people before even knowing they are affected. Such as a “financial patient zero”, being one bank or broker going bankrupt. But still, this comparison is much more than a metaphor. The health crisis is turning into an economic collapse.
Jim Rickards categorizes the three-system analysis being the initial point for the upcoming Social Disorder state. It begins with a public health issue (widespread illness), that guide to a government intermission (such as the social distancing order all around the globe), resulting in a financial crisis (example, high unemployment rates), leading to a social collapse involving random violence, looting, fraud, scams, and overall degenerate conduct.
We can already see so many examples throughout the world, such as the Michigan riots, the so-called “Operation Gridlock”, organized by the Michigan Conservative Coalition. The group request that Governor Gretchen Whitmer reopens the local economy on May 1st.
Locals are not at all happy with the stay at home public health order that collapsed the economy. Strikers claimed that they can make their own health decisions, and the state does not have to tell them what to do. In these riots, we saw many protestors carrying a shit tone os weapons, dressed in body armors, intimidating politicians and the overall population, surrounding Michigan’s state Capitol building.
This situation could never be predicted by anyone anywhere. Our whole financial system is collapsing, and all prognosis of global GPD is quite pessimistic, all in a down-hill scenario. In the industrialized economical systems, that hold almost 70% of the world’s workforce, innumerable small and medium commerces will collapse into the New Great Depression. That means more than 47 million workers, just in the U.S, unemployed. Consequences will be seen in every aspect of contemporary life. Politics, social and moral standards will be completely demolished….
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